(Fwd) Avnery extra: "Don't Envy Abu-Mazen"

[Gush Shalom (Israeli Peace Bloc)]

GUSH SHALOM - pob 3322, Tel-Aviv 61033 - http://www.gush-shalom.org/

[We thought you shouldn't miss this "extra edition" of the Avnery sequence]

Uri Avnery
26.4.03

òáøéú ìôé á÷ùä


Don't Envy Abu-Mazen

     My first impression of Abu-Mazen was of a serious, 
methodical, somewhat aloof introvert. He reminded me 
of a high-school principal, very different from Arafat, 
the impulsive extrovert, prone to personal gestures, 
exuding warmth to all around him.
     I met Abu-Mazen for the first time some 28 years 
ago. We were secretly in Tunis to meet Yasser Arafat. 
There were three of us: Matti Peled, a general in the 
reserves, Ya'acov Arnon, a former Director General of 
the Treasury and I. We met Abu-Mazen first to prepare 
practical proposals for joint actions, to be put before 
the "Old Man", as Arafat - then 54 - was called.
     I had first heard mention of the name Abu-Mazen 
nine years earlier, with my first secret contacts with 
senior PLO officials. They told me that the Fatah 
leadership had appointed a committee of three for 
contacts with Israelis. They were the "three Abus" (as I 
called them): Abu-Amar (Yasser Arafat), Abu-Iyad 
(Salah Halaf) and Abu-Mazen (Mahmud Abbas).
     Abu-Mazen was directly responsible for the contacts 
that started in 1974. At the first stage, they were 
conducted with me personally, but, from the autumn of 
1976 on, the Israeli partner was the "Israeli Council for 
Israeli-Palestinian Peace". The Palestinians who met us 
were Sa'id Hamami and Issam Sartawi - who were both 
murdered by the Iraqi-supported Palestinian arch-
terrorist, Abu-Nidal, a mortal enemy of Arafat.
     When Arafat and Abu-Mazen were both present at 
meetings with us, I got a clear picture of their mutual 
standing. The detailed discussions were conducted by 
Abu-Mazen, who had a good knowledge of things 
Israeli, but it was Arafat who, in the end, made the 
decisions. More than once I had the impression that the 
senior PLO leaders were quite content to leave to 
Arafat the responsibility for the courageous, 
dangerous and unpopular decisions that led up to the 
agreement with Israel.
     Now there is a new situation. Arafat has agreed to 
appoint Abu-Mazen Prime Minister. (The very fact that 
the whole world, and Israel too, have welcomed the 
Palestinian "government" and "Prime Minister" is a big 
step towards the establishment of the State of 
Palestine. In Oslo Israel still strenuously resisted terms 
like "President", "government" and "parliament" for 
the Palestinians.)  
     Abu-Mazen has taken upon himself a great 
responsibility vis-a-vis his own people and the world. 
He has put himself in a well-nigh impossible position.
     Sharon & Co. demand that he first of all put an end 
to "terrorism" ("armed struggle" in Palestinian 
parlance), liquidate the "terrorist organizations" collect 
their arms and prevent "incitement". Only after the 
successful completion of all this can real negotiations 
begin. Freezing the construction of settlements, of 
course, should not even be mentioned at this stage.  
     The Palestinian public, on the other hand, demands 
that first of all the Israeli army should leave the 
Palestinian towns, stopping "targeted assassinations", 
settlement activity, the demolition of homes and all 
other acts of oppression, and start real negotiations for 
the establishment of the State of Palestine.
     This threatens to become a deadlock.
     If the US and Europe exert massive pressure on 
Sharon, the way they have put massive pressure on 
Arafat, the deadlock might be broken. The Israeli army 
would withdraw, the situation in the Palestinian 
territories would change completely, the Palestinians 
would be able to breathe again and Abu-Mazen would 
appear as a leader who had already attained a great 
achievement. The popularity of the extreme 
organizations would decline.
     Even if this happened, Abu-Mazen could not dream 
of making mass  arrests, destroying the organizations 
and confiscating their weapons. There is nothing the 
Palestinians fear more than fratricidal war. However, 
the pressure of Palestinian public opinion would lead, 
at least, to an effective armistice. Even the extreme 
organizations are sensitive to the attitudes of their 
public - if it wants quiet, there will be quiet. That has 
already happened in the first period after the Oslo 
agreement.
     Let's assume that this happens. The attacks stop 
almost completely (there will always be some 
individuals and local groups who feel they have to act 
on their own). The Abu-Mazen government functions 
well in the Palestinian towns and villages. Then what?
     After the publication of the Road Map, Sharon will 
propose dozens of "corrections". Even now the "map" 
is strongly tilted towards Sharon. While the 
Palestinians gave up 78% of the country in Oslo and 
accepted the remaining 22% for building their own 
state, and have declared that they want to live in 
peaceful co-existence with Israel, Sharon talks  about 
"painful concessions" without spelling out what he 
really means.
     If Sharon's "corrections" are even partly accepted, 
the plan will lose most of what content it still has. Abu-
Mazen will stand there with empty hands, the 
negotiations will stagnate as in previous rounds.  
Gradually, the Palestinians will be forced to the 
conclusion that they can achieve nothing without 
violence, the fighting organizations will regain the 
initiative and the armed struggle will resume.
     Sharon and Bush will blame the Palestinians, of 
course. They will say that Abu-Mazen "has not 
delivered the goods". The Palestinians, for their part, 
will say that Abu-Mazen is naive, that he has fallen into 
an American-Israeli trap. He will resign, Arafat's 
prestige will rise to new heights.
    The next chapter can be foreseen. The Christian 
fundamentalists and Zionist neo-cons, who control 
Washington at this time, will demand that Sharon be 
given a free hand. The Palestinians will embark on the 
third intifada, more extreme than the two before. Blood 
and fire and columns of smoke.
     It could be different. For example: the US stops 
treating the Quartet with contempt, pressure is put on 
Sharon, Bush is not reelected, the negotiations bear 
fruit, the peace camp wins in Israel, the Palestinian 
state is founded in peace.
     In the Holy Land, miracles have happened before.
     But in the meantime, don't envy Abu-Mazen.    

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