[GushShalom] Avnery on collapse of Hudna/Roadmap

[Gush Shalom (Israeli Peace Bloc)]

GUSH SHALOM  pob 3322, Tel-Aviv 61033 www.gush-shalom.org

Uri Avnery
23.8.03

				A Drug for the Addict

     It was a putsch. Like any classic putsch, it was carried out by a 
group of officers: Sharon, Mofaz, Ya'alon and the army top brass.
     It is no secret that the military party (the only really functioning 
party in Israel) objected to the hudna (truce) from the first moment, 
much as it opposed the Road Map. Its powerful propaganda apparatus, 
which includes all the Israeli media, spread the message: "The hudna 
is a disaster! Every day of the hudna is a bad day! The reduction of 
violence to almost zero is a great misfortune: under cover of the truce, 
the terrorist organizations are recovering and rearming! Every terrorist 
strike avoided today will hit us much harder tomorrow!"
     The army command was like an addict deprived of his drug. It was 
forbidden to carry out the action it wanted. It was just about to crush 
the intifada, victory was just around the corner, all that was needed 
was just one final decisive blow, and that would have been that.
     The military was upset when it saw the new hope that took hold of 
the Israeli public, the bullish mood of the stock exchange, the rise in 
value of the shekel, the return of the masses to the entertainment 
centers, the signs of optimism on both sides. In effect, It was a 
spontaneous popular vote against the military policy.
     Ariel Sharon realized that if this went on, reality would overturn his 
long-term plans. Therefore, right at the beginning of the hudna, he 
adopted three immediate goals:
     First, to topple Abu-Mazen as soon as possible. Mahmud Abbas 
had become the darling of George Bush, a welcome guest at the White 
House. The unique standing of Sharon in Washington was in danger. 
The pair Bush-Sharon, which was mutating into a single Busharon unit, 
was in danger of becoming a triangle: Bush-Sharon-Abbas. There is no 
greater danger to Sharon's plans.
     Second, to wipe out the Road Map in its infancy. The Map obliged  
Sharon to remove immediately about 80 settlement outposts, freeze all 
settlements, stop the building of the wall and withdraw the army from 
all West Bank towns. Sharon never dreamt of fulfilling even one of 
these obligations.
     Third, to put an end to the hudna and give the army back its 
freedom of action in all the Palestinian territories.
     The question was how this could be achieved without a trace of 
suspicion attaching itself to Sharon. The great majority of Israelis, who 
had greeted the hudna, could not possibly be allowed to suspect that 
their own leaders were responsible for extinguishing this glimmer of 
hope. Even more important, it was imperative that no such pernicious 
idea should enter the innocent head of the good George W. All the 
blame must fall on the Palestinians, so that the affection for Abu-
Mazen would turn into contempt and hatred.
     The means for attaining this goal were selected with great care, 
taking into account the simplistic world of Bush with its Good Guys 
and Bad Guys. The Bad Guys are the terrorists. Therefore, it was 
advisable to kill Hamas and Jihad militants. That would not upset 
Bush. In the eyes of the President, to kill terrorists is a Good Thing.  
And as a result, the Palestinians would be compelled to break the 
hudna.
     This is how it happened:
      On August 8, Israeli soldiers killed two Hamas militants in Nablus. 
But the retaliation was restrained: on August 12, a Hamas suicide 
bomber killed one Israeli in Rosh-Ha'ayin and another bomber killed 
one person in the Ariel settlement. Both suicide bombers came from 
Nablus. Hamas announced that the hudna would continue. On August 
14, the Israeli army killed Muhammad Seeder, head of the military wing 
of Hamas in Hebron. Five days later, on August 19, a suicide bomber 
from Hebron blew himself up in a Jerusalem bus, killing 20 men, 
women and children. Two days later, on August 21, the army 
assassinated Isma'il Abu-Shanab, the fourth ranking leader of Hamas.
     This time it was not even possible even to pin on the victim the 
appellation "ticking bomb", as is usual in such cases. The man was a 
well-known political leader. Why was he of all people chosen for 
assassination? A military correspondent on Israeli TV made a slip of 
the tongue: Abu-Shanab was killed, he said, because he was 
"available". Meaning, he was an easy target because he did not go 
underground after the bus bombing, as did the leaders of the military 
wing.
     This time, at long last, the aim was achieved. The Palestinian 
organizations announced that they were calling off the hudna. Sharon 
and Co. rejoiced. Within hours the Israeli army had again penetrated 
into the centers of the Palestinian towns, starting an orgy of arrests 
and house demolitions (more than 40 in a single day). 
     The addict leapt for the drug. His crisis was over, the officers could 
do all the things they had been prevented from doing for nine long 
weeks.
     But the situation will not revert to the status quo ante intifada, so to 
speak. The attacks and killings will be more numerous and more cruel. 
The construction of the Wall deep in the Palestinian territories will be 
accelerated, along with the building activity in the settlements.
     The army propaganda machine is already preparing the public for 
the "expulsion of Arafat". "Expulsion" is a euphemism produced by the 
"verbal laundry" section of the army, one of its most creative 
departments. The intention is not to expel the leader from his Ramallah 
compound, nor from Palestine, but from this world. The reaction of the 
Palestinians and the whole Arab world can be predicted. It would be a 
historic point of no return, perhaps eliminating the chances of peace for 
generations.
     And the Americans? Never has the Bush administration looked so 
pathetic as here and now. The unfortunate Colin Powell arouses 
compassion with his stuttering and his emissary, John Wolf, a wolf 
without teeth, will go the way of all his predecessors. 
     After the implosion of the new order in Afghanistan and the classic 
guerilla war now engulfing the universally hated occupation regime in 
Iraq, the collapse of the Road Map will put an end to any presidential 
pretensions. It is much easier to have one's picture taken in the 
uniform of a glorious victor with a background of army extras than to 
steer the ship of state.
     The renewal of the cycle of violence will, of course, exacerbate the 
economic depression in Israel. The crisis will deepen. Together with 
the hudna and the Road Map, tourism, foreign investment and the 
recovery will also die. 
     The economy, too, is an addict who needs his drug: nine billion 
dollars in US government loan guarantees are waiting for Sharon in 
Washington. That should be enough for the political and military elite. 
Only the poor will become poorer. But who cares?
     All this is being done without consulting the Israeli public. There is 
no open discussion, no debate in the tame media, the silent Knesset 
and the cabinet of marionettes. That's what makes it a putsch.
     To sum up: The road Map is dead, because Sharon was against it 
from the beginning, Bush saw it only as a photo opportunity on a nice 
background and Abu-Mazen did not get from Israel and the US 
anything that he could present as a Palestinian achievement.
     What will happen now? After the shedding of yet more blood and 
many tears, the two peoples will arrive once more at the conviction that 
it is better to come to an agreement and make peace. Then they will 
be compelled to learn the lesson of the last chapter: It must all start 
from the end. Only after the picture of the final settlement clearly 
emerges can one deal with the immediate problems. Anything else 
would be a road map to the abyss. 

--
The last few months through the eyes of "The Other Israel" - the 
August-September issue is out. 28 pages with political analysis, 
Mes'ha camp, refusers putting the occupation on trial, and a lot of 
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otherisr at actcom.co.il

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[from the Coalition Against The Wall]
Invitation to sign the Petition Against The Apartheid 
Wall that Israel is constructing in the Occupied Territories
 

Now, when the Palestinians are engaging in nonviolent protests against 
this
unjust wall (which will bring no security to Israel), we—Palestinians,
Israelis, and Internationals of the Mas’ha Peace Camp—ask you to 
help stop construction, NOW.  

(The building of the Apartheid Wall in the Occupied Territories is now at 
a critical stage.  The completed sections of the wall have already 
caused
considerable suffering to the Palestinian population.  Homes have been
demolished, thousands of olive trees uprooted, acres upon acres of land
have been expropriated, roads have been destroyed--all to make way for
this monster.)

Add your voices to the Petition against construction of the Wall.  
Read and sign the petition on: 
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