[GushShalom] The Draw - Avnery on Hudna

[Gush Shalom (Israeli Peace Bloc)]

GUSH SHALOM  pob 3322, Tel-Aviv 61033 www.gush-shalom.org

[In what starts as a linguistic reverie, Uri Avnery sets out the 
possibilities / obstacles account of the present situation.]

Uri Avnery
5.7.03

:òáøéú áàúø / For Hebrew:
http://www.gush-shalom.org/archives/article257_heb.html

				The Draw

     After "Intifada" (shaking off) and "Shahid" (martyr), another Arabic 
term has entered the world's vocabulary: "Hudna" (truce).
     In Islamic tradition, the word evokes an historical event. The first 
Islamic truce was declared in the year 628 AD at Hodaibiya, in the 
course of Muhammad's war against the pagan chiefs of Mecca. 
According to the version now doing the rounds in Israel, Muhammad 
broke the truce and conquered Mecca. Ergo: Don't believe the Arabs, 
don't believe in the Hudna.
     In Arab history books, the same event is presented quite differently. 
The Hudna allowed the adherents of the new faith to enter Mecca on a 
pilgrimage to the holy rock. The pilgrims used the opportunity to make 
converts. When most citizens had accepted Islam, Muhammad 
entered the city almost without bloodshed and was received with open 
arms. Ergo: already in their earliest history, Muslims realized that 
persuasion is better than force.
     Therein lies the answer to the questions that are being asked now: 
Will the Hudna last? Will it continue after the initial three-month 
period? Will Arafat and Abu-Mazen succeed in bringing Hamas along 
with them?
     The answers depend completely on the mood of the Palestinian 
population. If it wants the Hudna, the Hudna will last. If it detests the 
Hudna, it will collapse. Hamas does not want to lose public sympathy 
by breaking a popular Hudna. On the contrary, it wants to play a major 
role in the future Palestinian state. But if the population comes to the 
conclusion that the Hudna has borne no fruit, Hamas will be the first to 
break it.
     On what will this depend? If the Hudna delivers a major political 
achievement to the nation and a marked improvement in the quality of 
life to individuals, it will be popular and take root. 
     That is logical, and that corresponds with my own personal 
experience. I have already mentioned in these columns that in my 
early youth I was a member of a liberation and/or terrorist organization 
(the definition depends on your point of view). At that time, I learned 
that such an organization needs public support and cannot operate 
without it. It needs money, means of propaganda, hiding places, new 
members. For an organization like Hamas, that has also political and 
social ambitions, popularity is doubly important. As long as the Hudna 
is popular, Hamas will abide by it.
     This is primarily a test for Abu-Mazen. What can he do to make the 
Hudna popular? He must secure the wide-scale release of Palestinian 
prisoners; the amelioration of the horrible living conditions; the 
withdrawal of the Israeli army from the towns and villages; the removal 
of the checkpoints that make Palestinian life miserable; the restoration 
of freedom of access to the urban centers, the work places, hospitals 
and universities; an ending of targeted assassinations, deportations, 
demolition of homes and uprooting of groves; the freeze on building 
activities in the settlements and an end to the construction of the 
"fence" that is biting off large chunks of land from the West Bank.
     If there is no progress in all these matters, the Hudna will collapse. 
Should this happen, the Israeli military and political establishment will 
shed no tears. There the Hudna was received with much gnashing of 
teeth, as if it were imposed by some hostile force. As a matter of fact, 
it came about by sheer American pressure. The Israeli media, all of 
whom have long ago become propaganda instruments of the "security 
establishment", received the Hudna in unison, as if by order, with 
comments like "It has no chance. It will not last" - a prophecy that may 
well prove to be self-realizing.
     The army command opposed the cease-fire. As always, the officers 
explained that victory was just around the corner, that all it needed was 
 one last decisive blow. Exactly this, in the very same words, was said 
by th
e French generals who opposed ending the war in Algeria, and by the American generals when Nixon fi
nally gave up in Vietnam. This was said by the Russian generals in Afghanistan, and now they are sa
ying it again in Chechn
ya. They are always just about to win. They always need to deliver just one more blow. And it's alw
ays the corrupt politicians who stick a knife in their backs and bring about defeat.
     The truth is that the army commanders have failed dismally. They have had many small successes
, but they have failed to achieve their main aim: to break the will of the Palestinian people. For 
every "local leader" wh
o was "targeted" and "liquidated", two new ones arose. The "terrorist infrastructure" was not destr
oyed, because there is no way to destroy it. It is not composed of arms workshops and leaders, but 
of popular support and 
the number of youngsters ready to risk and abandon their lives. 
     After 1000 days, in spite of the killing and the destruction, the Palestinian spirit of resist
ance and their fighting capacity were not broken. The Palestinian people has not given up the deman
ds expressed at Camp Da
vid and Taba. At the beginning of this Intifada, some individuals volunteered for suicide missions;
 at its end, hundreds stood in line.
     The Palestinians did not win, either. They have proved that they can not be brought to their k
nees. They have prevented the Palestinian cause from being struck from the world agenda. The Israel
i economy has been hit 
hard. The Intifada has cast its shadow over daily life in Israel. Many of the acts that are conside
red criminal by Israelis look to the Palestinians like glorious acts of heroism. The destruction of
 Israeli tanks, the eli
mination of a major checkpoint by one solitary sniper, the attack by Palestinian commandos who craw
led under the "separation wall" - acts like these have filled the Palestinians with pride. And the 
very fact that after 10
00 days the Palestinian David remains standing and facing the mighty Israeli Goliath is by itself a
n achievement that will be proudly passed down to the coming generations of Palestinians.
      But the Palestinians have not succeeded in imposing their will on Israel, just as Israel has 
not succeeded in imposing its will on the Palestinians. Both the Israelis and the Palestinians are 
exhausted. This Intifad
a has ended, for the time being, in a draw.
     Mosh Ya'alon, a chief-of-staff with an unquenchable thirst for 
talking, has proclaimed victory. But on the same day, in a respected 
Israeli public opinion poll, 73% of those polled expressed the opinion 
that Israel has not won, and 33% even saw the Palestinians as the 
victors. The largest circulation newspaper in the country headlined a 
story about the chief-of-staff with the ironic words: "For your 
information, We Have Won!" The majority does not believe that the 
Hudna will hold. But in the meantime, every day that passes without 
human sacrifice on either side is a pure gain for all of us.
     What now? Real negotiations? Negotiations that are nothing other 
than make-believe? Efforts by both sides to court the Americans? 
American pressure on both parties to come up with some real actions? 
Ask Condoleezza. 


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